A tremendous amount of media attention has been paid to which party will control the U.S. Senate following the 2014 election cycle. Writing this on the weekend before Election Day, the tide does seem to be in favor of the Republican candidates in the key races that will decide which party will hold a majority when the new Congress is seated in January 2015.
In a moment, I will make my own predictions regarding the victors of key races and what the final tally will be in the new Senate. However, before I take that step, I want to address what I have called the Carter Effect since 1980. I have yet to hear one commentator or pundit address the matter of what I call the Carter Effect in any manner whatsoever. And, I maintain this is a significant failure in the analysis of the 2014 battle for the U.S. Senate.
The Carter Effect arises from the presidential election campaign of 1980, between incumbent Jimmy Carter and former California Governor Ronald Reagan. Right up until Election Day, the media called the race too close to call. Indeed, the internal polling in both campaigns throughout the latter days of the campaign supported the proposition that the race between Carter and Reagan was too close to call.
When the votes were tallied, Ronald Reagan was elected President of the United States by a landslide. (Four years later he would be reelected by the largest landslide in American history.) Reagan won the election with a lead over Carter of nearly 10 percent. Reagan won 489 electoral votes to Carter’s 49. In short, there was nothing “too close to call” about Carter – Reagan race.
What I call the Carter Effect is what skewed the polls right up until Election Day. In the end, exit polling and other research revealed that a surprising number of Democrats voted for Reagan. In addition, a significant number of these Democrats who voted for Reagan did so quietly. When questioned in pre-election polls, they dutifully reported that they were voting for Carter. They even kept their decision to vote for the Republican Reagan a secret from friends and family members. I rather imagine a good percentage of these Democrat Reagan voters made the decision to vote for the Gipper in the voting booth itself.
This set of facts is the Carter Effect. And I strongly maintain that it is occurring and will continue to occur in the 2014 U.S. Senate election campaigns. (I say is occurring because of early and mail-in voting and will continue to occur because of those who will actually vote on Election Day.)
I suggest there is a significant percentage of Democrats (including true progressives) who are very concerned about the manner in which Barack Obama has conducted the affairs of his office. There is a large number of Democratic voters who understand that Democrats and Republicans alike both share the blame for the dysfunction on Capitol Hill. As an aside, polls consistently demonstrate that about 20 percent of Democrats feel Obama has not served the interests of the American people well. I suggest that the total number of Democrats who truly recognize the shortcomings of the President is closer to 40 percent.
The difference between the Democrats that disclose their feelings openly to pollsters and the number of Democrats truly distressed with the conduct of Obama in office but who keep their feelings to themselves is where the Carter Effect number is found in the race for the U.S. Senate. I estimate that approximately 5 percent of Democratic respondents in polls that report they will vote for the Democrat U.S. Senate candidate actually have or will vote for the Republican choice.
In the final analysis, not only are races trending towards Republicans across the country, when the Carter Effect enters into the mix, the GOP has locked up the U.S. Senate – and significantly so. As I write this two days before votes are tallied, the following states are considered toss-ups: Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, New Hampshire and North Carolina. I maintain that by including the Carter Effect in the analysis of these races, none of these states are in a toss-up status and the GOP will take all of these seats.
As an aside, Arkansas and Kentucky are said to be leaning but not safely in the Republican column. I suggest the GOP will take both seats on Tuesday. Only one other seat currently held by a Democrat is in the leaning column: Virginia. I think a possibility exists for the GOP to take this seat but I am not banking on it.
When the dust settles on the 2014 race for the U.S. Senate, the Republicans will have 55 seats to 45 for the Democrats.
I close with some parting comments on individual races:
Alaska
Republican candidate Dan Sullivan continues to maintain his lead against incumbent Mark Begich, which has been consistent for some time. The only reason Begich won the seat six years ago was because of the unwarranted criminal prosecution launched against the sitting Senator at that time. Sullivan wins.
Arkansas
Republican Tom Cotton has been widening his lead against Democrat Mark Pryor. In recent days, Pryor has started to flail like a drowning man. Cotton wins, and I am predicting handily.
Colorado
Democrat Mark Udall should have cruised to an easy victory. When voting ends, the reality of how badly his campaign was mismanaged by his campaign leadership will set in. Republican Corey Gardner has run a solid campaign and continues to widen his lead. Gardner wins – and it will not be a particularly close race.
Georgia
Republican David Perdue and Democrat Michelle Nunn have been locked in a close race. But, when the Carter Effect is brought into the calculation, Perdue wins and may be able to avoid a run-off by collecting over 50 percent of the vote.
Iowa
Republican Joni Ernst has been pulling slowly away from Bruce Braley. This is a close race. Ernst wins.
Kansas
One of the strangest races of the year. Incumbent Republican Pat Roberts is facing down an unaffiliated opponent in Greg Orman. This is the closest to a true toss-up Senate race in the country a few days before the election. I do predict Roberts – barely – pulls it off.
Louisiana
The campaign of incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu may have imploded a couple of days ago with her statements regarding racism and sexism in Louisiana. She was trailing before that event. The race will go to a run-off in early December, but Republican Bill Cassidy wins.
New Hampshire
Incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen will feel the full effect of the Carter Effect on Election Day. A race she should have easily won now finds her looking down the barrel of defeat at the hands of former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown. Brown wins.
North Carolina
Democrat Kay Hagen, the sitting Senator, has been locked in a neck and neck battle with Thom Tillis. Tillis seems to be pulling away and has had some very effective ads in these final days. Tillis wins.
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