It’s Gonna Be Donald Trump:

Electoral College Predictions - 2016 Presidential Election

October 29, 2016

by Mike Broemmel

NOTE: I am in the process of trying to archive old essays and columns. As the header indicates, this piece was written on October 29, 2016, for some various social media sites and websites discussing and reporting on the presidential election. As an aside, I was called every kind of stupid by a large swath of people for making this prediction about Trump winning the election with 305 electoral votes. (He ended up with 304.)

I've spoken of Trump under-polling on more than a few occasions. (I am not supporting either Clinton nor Trump.) Specifically, I think there is a block of voters who have/will vote for Trump and never admit doing so. This type of thing happened in 1980. Even through exit polls said Reagan and Carter were neck and neck. However, Reagan won by one of the largest landslides in U.S. history. A block of voters voted for Reagan and yet said they supported Carter. They fibbed. Upwards to 20% of Democrats voted for Reagan in 1980.

I think the same phenomena is at work in 2016. Polls do not take this dynamic into account. I have reconsidered state-by-state polls by taking Trump under-polling into account.

I also think the re-opening of the criminal investigation involving Clinton has some impact on how people will vote. I think it probably peels away about 2% overall from Clinton. Most of these people probably do not migrate to Trump. Many stay home, others vote for another candidate. What this latest turn of events does do is firm up the resolve of quiet Trump voters, those people who will vote for Trump and not admit doing so.

This is where I think the Electoral College vote ends up:

Final Electoral College Results – 2016 Election

Clinton: 233 *

Trump: 305 **

California – 55, Clinton

Texas – 38, Trump

Florida – 29, Trump

New York – 29, Clinton

Illinois – 20, Clinton

Pennsylvania – 20, Trump

Ohio – 18, Trump

Georgia – 16, Trump

Michigan – 16, Clinton

North Carolina – 15, Trump

New Jersey – 14, Clinton

Virginia – 13, Clinton

Washington – 12, Clinton

Arizona – 11, Trump

Indiana – 11, Trump

Massachusetts – 11, Clinton

Tennessee – 11, Trump

Maryland – 10, Clinton

Minnesota – 10, Clinton

Missouri - 10, Trump

Wisconsin – 10, Clinton

Alabama – 9, Trump

Colorado – 9, Trump

South Carolina – 9, Trump

Kentucky – 8, Trump

Louisiana – 8, Trump

Connecticut – 7, Clinton

Oklahoma – 7, Trump

Oregon – 7, Clinton

Arkansas – 6, Trump

Iowa – 6, Trump

Kansas – 6, Trump

Mississippi - 6, Trump

Nevada – 6, Trump

Utah – 6, Trump

Nebraska – 5, Trump

New Mexico – 5, Trump

West Virginia – 5, Trump

Hawaii - 4, Clinton

Idaho - 4, Trump

Maine – 4, Split – 2/2 Trump/Clinton

New Hampshire – 4, Trump

Rhode Island – 4, Clinton

Alaska - 3, Trump

Delaware – 3, Clinton

District of Columbia – 3, Clinton

Montana – 3, Trump

North Dakota – 3, Trump

South Dakota – 3, Trump

Vermont – 3, Clinton

Wyoming – 3, Trump

* Clinton may lose one electoral vote. One pledged Clinton elector indicates that this individual will not vote for her.

** Trump may lose 6 in Utah because an independent candidate on the ballot has a decent chance of winning the state.

Mike Broemmel